Colorado vs Middle Tennessee preview: what to expect in the Buffs’ first-round matchup
March Madness is officially here, and the Buffs’ women’s basketball team still has a chance to make a run at glory.
The Buffs are making their second NCAA Tournament appearance under head coach JR Payne, after suffering a first round loss to Creighton a year ago. The Buffs will be looking to win a tournament game for the first time in 20 years when they take the floor this weekend.
CU has a slightly tougher path out of the first weekend than many would have thought coming into Selection Sunday last weekend, as they were given a No. 6 seed in the bracket, instead of the No. 5 they were expected to receive.
This makes the hill just a little steeper for the Buffs in the first round, as they drew a tough matchup in the No. 11 seed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.
The Blue Raiders had an excellent season, rolling through their schedule all the way to a 28-4 record. MTSU backed up their regular season conference championship with a Conference USA tournament title, and are entering the Big Dance on a 10-game winning streak.
Let’s dive into what the Buffs are up against in their first round matchup.
When Middle Tennessee has the ball
The Blue Raiders don’t have a ton of depth, but they rely on a multifaceted attack, and get contributions offensively from all over their rotation. MTSU finished with the No. 1 scoring offense in Conference USA behind four double-digit scorers.
Leading the charge for Middle Tennessee is Kseniya Malashka, who scores at a blistering per-minute clip. Despite coming off the bench and playing just 23 minutes a game, the Belarus native leads the team with 15.2 points per game, putting her at an incredible 26.3 points per 40 minutes. Expect Malashka to see an uptick in playing time with the Blue Raider season on the line.
Point guard Savannah Wheeler can also fill it up, averaging 15.1 points per game while serving as the orchestrator of the Blue Raider offense, setting the table for teammates when needed. She leads the team in assists this season, but make no mistake, she is a threat to go off on any given night. Last year, as a junior at Marshall, Wheeler averaged over 20 points per game.
MTSU doesn’t do a ton of damage from the outside, but when they do, they look to guard Jalynn Gregory. Gregory led the C-USA in threes made during the season, knocking down 84 in 32 games at a respectable 34.1% clip.
Rounding out the group of scorers is forward Courtney Whitson, a Blue Raider legend who is the school’s all-time leader in minutes played and averaged 10.4 points per game this season. She also led the C-USA with 7.9 rebounds per contest, despite leading a relatively undersized frontcourt.
Middle Tennessee runs a very crisp, efficient offense, moving the ball around and limiting turnovers. They finished the year ranked No. 1 in the C-USA in assist-to-turnover ratio. In addition, they are an excellent free throw shooting team, something that has pushed them over the top in close games time and time again this season. They have four players who shoot 86% or higher from the charity stripe, and hover around 78% as a team.
This combination of careful ball handling and clutch free throw shooting allows them to hold a lead late in games with ease, so the Buffs will need to get out to a hot start and make them play catch-up.
Schematically, MTSU relies heavily on a few different principles to run a good amount of their offense. The Blue Raiders rely heavily on on-ball actions, running a ton of ball screens and handoffs to get their guards going downhill. Off of this, they use the bigs as rollers to the rim, and can open up three point opportunities off of kickouts after they get the ball inside.
Middle Tennessee also likes to isolate their bigs and space the floor around them, allowing them to make plays for themselves and their teammates. This will require the Buffs’ bigs to play out in space and guard on the perimeter to be effective defensively.
Defensively, the Buffs have been very strong all season, and it starts with their point-of-attack defense. They don’t block a ton of shots inside, but have weapons that they can deploy all over the perimeter to disrupt the MTSU ball handlers.
Pac-12 steals leader and All-Defense selection Jaylyn Sherrod leads the havoc-inducing CU attack on the perimeter, capable of hounding even the best guards in the country for 94 feet. Kindyll Wetta provides a defensive ace off the bench, and can take tough assignments from Sherrod periodically throughout a ballgame.
However, the Buffs x-factor defensively may just be senior Tayanna Jones, who uses her long, athletic 6’3” frame to disrupt offenses both on and off the ball. She can use her length to get into the dribble of guards, or can roam as a free safety-type player off the ball, picking off passes from the weak side. On top of that, she serves as a rim protector on a CU team that doesn’t have a true rim-protecting five on the roster, and leads the Buffs in blocked shots.
When Colorado has the ball
The Buffs have had their ups and downs offensively this season, and will have their work cut out for them on Saturday against an elite MTSU defense that gave up just 56.7 points per game this year.
The Blue Raiders have an elite rim protecting presence, with Malashka blocking 1.7 shots per game and 6’6” center Anastasiia Boldyreva blocking 1.3 per game. Those marks are good enough for second and fourth in C-USA this season, respectively.
The common counter to this would be to hurt them from the perimeter, but CU has struggled at times with their three-point shooting this season.
Enter Frida Formann. The Danish sharpshooter knocked down 65 threes this year at a blistering 38.5% clip, and her confidence has only grown throughout the season. The junior guard came into the year as mostly an off-ball player, getting a majority of her looks off of pindowns and flares, but has grown as an on-ball creator. Adding the dribble-drive and a lethal stepback to her arsenal has turned her into a dangerous scorer from all three levels.
On top of that, the Buffs should be able to do some damage inside, despite the two shot-blockers that will be in blue. Boldyreva is a massive presence on the interior, but plays only about 15 minutes per game to keep the Blue Raiders’ spacing intact offensively.
When she sits, Aaronette Vonleh should dominate. Vonleh has really come on late in the year as a reliable option out of the post for JR Payne’s group, finishing over both shoulders with great touch and efficiency, and leading the Pac-12 in field goal percentage. The 6’3” transfer from Arizona has become adept at taking advantage of mismatches, which is exactly what she will get to do against Middle Tennessee’s smaller lineups (outside of Boldyreva, none of MTSU’s rotation players are taller than 6’0”).
At the point of attack, Sherrod will need to tie it all together, take care of the ball, and make sure CU is getting good looks. The Pac-12 assist leader is a master at controlling the tempo. She slows the pace down when needed, but also pushes the ball in transition off of missed shots and turnovers with a relentless, Russell Westbrook-like speed and tenacity. If Sherrod can take care of the rock and generate some easy looks for the Buffs, they can have some success scoring the ball.
The x-factor for the Buffs on the offensive end has to be leading scorer Quay Miller. The Washington transfer has blossomed into a reliable inside-out threat for the CU offense over the past two seasons, but has fallen into a little bit of a rut as of late. Getting her back on track should be a top priority for Colorado.
Three keys to victory for the Buffs
Can Vonleh and Miller guard in space?
This is my main key for the Buffs on defense. If Vonleh and Miller can’t hold up against the MTSU bigs on the perimeter, then JR Payne will likely have to go to a small lineup with four guards on the floor. While the Buffs have had some success with smaller lineups this year, it would take away the Buffs’ size advantage on the inside and make them play Middle Tennessee’s style of game. With Vonleh and Miller out there, CU can dominate on the boards and get plenty of easy buckets in the post, but they will have to hold up defensively.
Win the turnover battle
As I mentioned earlier, the experienced Blue Raiders take great care of the ball and don’t give away possessions. On the other hand, Sherrod and the rest of the CU defense loves to take the ball away, and has even shown some press looks to cause chaos on the defensive end this year. It’s a strength on strength battle, but if Colorado can make the MTSU guards uncomfortable and force some mistakes, it could go a long way towards picking up a win.
Get Quay Miller going
Miller was a beacon of consistency during the season, but had a rough Pac-12 Tournament, shooting 0-for-16 and turning the ball over nine times in the Buffs’ two games in Las Vegas. Getting her back to the three-level threat that she has been all season is vital for CU’s offense in this one. Miller collects second-chance points, can exploit smaller defenders in the post, and can step out and hit jumpers when she’s on, and adds another dimension to the Buffs’ offense when she’s right. She needs to get going.
Overall Outlook
This should be a tight, entertaining battle between two really high-quality basketball teams. The Buffs’ two-big lineups against MTSU’s spread-out offense will be a fascinating chess match to keep an eye on. The Buffs have a steep challenge in front of them, but they have stepped up to the plate plenty of times this year.
You can check out the Buffs’ first round matchup on Saturday at 5 p.m., and the game will be televised on ESPN News.
