Pac-12 women’s basketball tournament: preview, predictions, and what to expect
March is officially here, and that can only mean one thing: it’s tournament season.
The men’s and women’s conference tournaments have already kicked off this week, and over the next 11 days, teams all over the country will be looking to take home championships in their respective leagues, and punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
The Colorado women’s basketball team heads into the Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas this week coming off of their best regular season in a decade, and have plenty of reason for optimism. The Buffs have shown time and time again that they can compete at the highest level in the conference, and they will get a chance to showcase that over the next few days.
So, with the tournament tipping off Wednesday, here’s what you can expect from CU, and from the rest of the league, as they battle it out for the Pac-12 crown.
First Round
No. 12 Arizona State vs No. 5 UCLA
On paper, this one is a mismatch. The Sun Devils started the season off playing some decent basketball in the non-conference (against a fairly weak schedule), before losing their first 16 games in Pac-12 play, and finishing with a 1-17 conference record. Save for a two-point win at Oregon State, things just haven’t gone ASU’s way this year, including losing two games to forfeits due to a lack of healthy players.
On the other side, UCLA comes in as the Pac-12’s No. 5 seed and the No. 19 ranked team in the AP Poll, led by their star guard Charisma Osborne. The Bruins had no trouble with Arizona State in their lone regular season meeting, winning 82-63 in Los Angeles. Save for a few lapses, the Bruins have mostly taken care of business against the lesser teams in the Pac-12, and this one should be no different. UCLA should roll here.
Prediction: UCLA 86, Arizona State 61
No. 9 Oregon vs No. 8 Washington
The second game of the first day in Vegas features two teams with nearly identical records fighting for their lives in the NCAA Tournament picture. As it stands, Oregon sits as the first team out of the bracket in ESPN’s latest Bracketology, while Washington is in the “next four out”.
The Ducks come into this matchup looking to keep their recent momentum going, beating Arizona and Arizona State after seven straight conference losses. Led by senior Endyia Rogers and freshman Grace VanSlooten, the Ducks challenge opponents with their diverse scoring attack and the No. 1 three-point percentage in the conference.
Washington, on the other hand, wants to play a much different style. They come in with the last ranked scoring offense in the Pac-12, but they will rebound the ball well and play rock-solid defense.
The difference in this game will be Oregon’s three point shooting. Washington has been good defensively, but are susceptible to giving up some open looks on the perimeter from time to time. Rogers struggled in both games against the Huskies this year (which the teams split), but I think she has a bounce-back performance, and the Ducks make just enough shots to get it done.
Prediction: Oregon 72, Washington 69
No. 10 Cal vs No. 7 Washington State
Cal enters this contest coming off of a brutal stretch of games, playing five ranked teams in a row to close out their regular season. The Golden Bears showed stretches of promising play, even notching an upset win over No. 25 USC, but finished the year just 4-14 in conference play.
Washington State comes in off of a little bit of a disappointing regular season that saw flashes of excellence (road wins against UCLA and Arizona), along with stretches of head-scratching play. Despite these inconsistencies, the Cougars still sit in the projected NCAA Tournament field, but likely need at least one win in Las Vegas to firmly secure their spot.
Charlisse Leger-Walker is an electric guard who finished the season as the Pac-12’s third leading scorer, and dropped 25 points in a win over the Golden Bears earlier this season, and I think she will lead the Cougars again here.
Prediction: Washington State 77, Cal 63
No. 11 Oregon State vs No. 6 USC
The final game of the Wednesday slate features two teams that played two pretty tightly contested games this year, with the Trojans taking both meetings by a combined 15 points. The Trojans boast the Pac-12’s top scoring defense, giving up just 54.8 points per game, and do a great job of bogging down opposing offenses enough for their three-headed monster of Kadi Sissoko, Destiny Littleton, and Rayah Marshall to go to work.
The Beavers are coming off of a huge upset win against Arizona, one that also snapped a nine-game losing streak. Oregon State was much more competitive this season than their record indicates, as they lost seven games this year by five or less points.
It wouldn’t be March without a little madness, and I think the Beavers ride the momentum of their last win and pull off the upset here.
Prediction: Oregon State 52, USC 50
Quarterfinals
No. 5 UCLA vs No. 4 Arizona
Thursday’s slate kicks off with a blockbuster, top-25 matchup between two storied programs. Arizona comes in on a little bit of a slide, losing their last two games of the regular season against Oregon and Oregon State, but are led by Pac-12 Co-Most Improved Player Shaina Pellington and four-time All-Pac-12 selection Cate Reese.
The Wildcats play a smart brand of basketball, creating turnovers and taking care of the rock on offense. In addition, they won the only regular season meeting, 71-66, on the road in Los Angeles. UCLA will come in with momentum from the day before, but Arizona will have the fresher legs and Reese will be a difference-maker against the Bruins’ vulnerable front line.
Prediction: Arizona 76, UCLA 72
No 9. Oregon vs No. 1 Stanford
Stanford comes into the Pac-12 Tournament as the favorite to win their third conference title in a row, and it’s hard to argue with their case. Led by All-Pac-12 members and future WNBA draft picks Cameron Brink, Haley Jones, and Hannah Jump, the Cardinal pose a formidable threat on both ends of the floor.
Led by Hall-of-Fame coach Tara VanDerveer, the Cardinal boast both the second-ranked offense and the second-ranked defense in the league, and allow opponents to shoot just 33 percent from the floor. Brink took home Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year honors after posting a historic season protecting the rim, blocking a mind-boggling 3.5 shots per game. Stanford also dominates on the boards, rebounding almost 40 percent of their own missed shots, and lapping the rest of the league in rebounding margin.
Oregon has enough talent to compete, but coming off of a difficult first-round matchup, I don’t think they can generate enough opportunities to compete with a national title contender.
Prediction: Stanford 74, Oregon 56
No. 7 Washington State vs No. 2 Utah
You know what you’re gonna get when you watch the Utah Utes this season. They get buckets. Averaging an astonishing 84.4 points per game to lead the Pac-12, Utah rolled through much of their schedule this year, and they head into Las Vegas with just three losses on the season, all road losses against fellow top-25 teams.
The No. 3 team in the most recent AP Poll is led by the Pac-12 Player of the Year Alissa Pili, who also leads the league in scoring with over 20 points a night. The most impressive part of Pili’s output this year has been how efficiently she scores from all three levels. The junior from Alaska leads the Pac-12 in field goal percentage at nearly 60 percent, and ranks second in percentage from beyond the arc, knocking down just under 46 percent of her triples.
This matchup poses an exciting duel on the offensive end between two of the most gifted scorers in the conference, Leger-Walker and Pili, but the Utes have the deeper talent pool, and have a reliable second option in sophomore guard Gianna Kneepkens that the Cougars have been searching for for most of the year. There will certainly be some fireworks in this one, but the Utes have been nearly impossible to beat in a shootout this year.
Prediction: Utah 83, Washington State 75
No. 11 Oregon State vs No. 3 Colorado
The Buffs have taken yet another leap this year under head coach JR Payne, and have grown from Pac-12 darling to a serious contender. All year, CU has been a well-rounded group who plays solid defense, plays great team basketball, and consistently makes winning plays down the stretch of tight games.
Senior forward Quay Miller has been an offensive beacon for the Buffs this year, making plays both from the post and from the perimeter. Point guard Jaylyn Sherrod has been a monster on both ends of the floor, leading the Pac-12 in both assists and steals this season and earning a spot on the Pac-12 All-Defensive team. Arizona transfer Aaronette Vonleh earned Pac-12 Co-Most Improved Player honors this year, and has shown that she can control the paint on any given night.
The Beavers have been scrappy and competitive all season, but I expect the Buffs to lock in defensively and have Sherrod push the pace in transition to lift them over the top in this one.
Prediction: Colorado 64, Oregon State 54
Semifinals
No. 4 Arizona vs No. 1 Stanford
A rematch of the 2021 National Championship game features two teams that have aspirations of yet another deep run in March. However, this matchup has been pretty one sided in their two meetings this year, with Stanford taking the two meetings by a combined 40 points.
Truth be told, it’s a really tough matchup for an Arizona squad that’s on the smaller side. Stanford’s bigs are, well, really big, and they come at you in waves. Alongside Brink, the Cardinal come at you with sophomore bigs Kiki Iriafen and Brooke Demetre, along with 6’7” freshman Lauren Betts, who has seen her role increase substantially as the season has gone on.
As talented as Reese and senior forward Esmery Martinez are, Stanford makes scoring on the interior extremely difficult, and the Wildcats are not a great shooting team from three-point range or the free-throw line. Couple that with a matchup that the Cardinal should dominate on the boards, and I think Stanford should roll into a seventh consecutive conference title game.
Prediction: Stanford 73, Arizona 61
No. 3 Colorado vs No. 2 Utah
The Pac-12 semifinals are a perfect place for a rubber match between the Buffs and the Utes, after each team successfully defended their home court against the other this season. This matchup also brings a fascinating contrast of styles, with the Utes’ high-octane offense meeting the Buffs’ stingy defense.
The most intriguing part of this matchup is how the Buffs choose to defend Pili. Do they trust Vonleh or Miller to handle her one-on-one on the inside? Do they try sending some doubles to get the ball out of her hands? Do they give Tayanna Jones a bite at the apple, in hopes that her length and athleticism will give the Utes’ star fits? Not many options have worked against the Pac-12 Player of the Year this year, but the Buffs have plenty of avenues they can explore in a potential matchup against the star forward.
No matter how well you defend the Utah offense, you’re still gonna have to score some points to keep up. Junior guard Frida Formann has made a huge difference for the CU offense this season as a three-point sniper, and she should be able to open up the floor for Miller and Vonleh to go to work inside. Sharpshooting freshman Jada Wynn could also be an x-factor off the bench for the Buffs.
In the end, I think that CU can make life tough on the Utes. The Buffs held Pili and Kneepkens to just 27 combined points in their last meeting, and Sherrod and Kindyll Wetta always seem to take matchups against elite guards like Kneepkens personally. Sherrod has been an elite closer all year, and I think she helps the Buffs pull off the upset in a classic game.
Prediction: Colorado 73, Utah 72
Championship
No. 3 Colorado vs No. 1 Stanford
The championship game in my bracket features a rematch of an epic battle in Boulder last week, one that the Cardinal won in a war of attrition that required two overtimes to decide. In that game, despite the loss, CU showed the ability to make life extremely difficult for the Stanford stars on the offensive end.
Brink almost never got a touch in the post that wasn’t contested by multiple Buffs during that game, and Haley Jones saw help from tons of different places on the floor on her multitude of drives. CU did a good job showing nail help against the pick-and-roll, and did a nice job of digging on drives without completely abandoning the Stanford shooters on the outside.
However, the Cardinal are a championship-caliber team for a reason, and they found ways to dig in and stay in the game even as they worked their way out of the mud on offense. Stanford got on the offensive glass to create extra possessions, and made life extremely tough on Miller and Vonleh on the inside, even as Brink struggled mightily with foul trouble. Betts and Francesca Belibi played massive roles in that win while Brink was forced to the bench.
The Buffs have come a long way since last year’s 71-45 drubbing at the hands of the Cardinal in the conference semifinals, but Stanford’s combination of talent and experience in big games will push them over the top once again.
Prediction: Stanford 64, Colorado 59
