Buffs Sweet 16 preview: Can CU slow down the Caitlin Clark machine?

The race for the National Championship is on in college hoops, and we are down to the Sweet 16.

Colorado was able to navigate through the opening weekend despite having to play in Durham, capping it off with an upset win over No. 3 seed Duke in a hostile Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday night.

The win propelled the Buffs into their first Sweet 16 since 2003, marking uncharted territory for the program under head coach JR Payne.

CU is in the spotlight 📸🦬

Coach JR Payne sat down for a presser with local media yesterday, talking in front of a dozen media members before Friday.

I also asked Jay Sherrod about what this Sweet 16 moment means to her as a leader of #cubuffs WBB.

Full video in @SBS_CU bio! pic.twitter.com/eOcIl4mlsw

— Meghan MacPherson (@meghankmac) March 23, 2023

CU’s upset was just the latest in a women’s tournament that has been filled with chaos to this point. With Indiana losing to Miami and Stanford falling at the hands of Ole Miss, this marks the first year that multiple No. 1 seeds failed to reach the Sweet 16 in the women’s bracket since 1998.

The Buffs now look to keep the upset trend going as they head into a Sweet 16 matchup with No. 2 seed Iowa and presumptive National Player of the Year Caitlin Clark. 

Let’s take a look at what CU is up against when they take on the Big Ten Champs on Friday night.

When Iowa has the ball

There’s no sugarcoating this one. Not only are the Hawkeyes the best offense the Buffs have played this year, they are comfortably the best offense in college basketball.

They lead the entire country in scoring by a healthy margin, scoring 87.4 points per game. They only have been held under 70 one time, in a loss to Maryland. They have exceeded the 100-point mark five times. They play fast, but also score efficiently, shooting an NCAA-best 51% from the field as a team.

Iowa also moves the ball extremely well, leading the nation with 21.2 assists per game. This, combined with their tempo, allows them to get plenty of easy baskets to rack up points in a hurry.

Of course, none of this would be possible without Clark, who is their heartbeat offensively. Everything the Hawkeyes do revolves around her, and the Buffs defense will have their plates full to plan for it. She is the most impactful singular force on the offensive end in college hoops, and is one of the best players we have ever seen at this level.

Look at nearly any offensive stat, and you’ll likely find Clark near the top. She’s third in the country in scoring at 26.8 points per game. She leads the country in assists and three-pointers made per game. Her four triple doubles also set the pace in college basketball, and only one other player has more than one. Clark even pitches in on the glass, averaging a team-high 7.3 rebounds per game.

But what’s so impressive about Clark’s game isn’t the raw numbers, it’s all of the different ways that she can accumulate them. She’s an effortless scorer from everywhere on the floor, able to create her own shot or work off the ball to get open. 

Everyone knows about Clark’s range; she is a threat to pull up from anywhere, yes, literally anywhere, as soon as she crosses half court. But her shooting isn’t limited to just pull-ups from the moon. She’s just as effective working off screens off the ball to get open, and is constantly in motion trying to get open. Off the dribble, she has mastered the stepback when moving to her left, and uses it from both the mid-range and the three-point line.

When she drives, she is an excellent scorer from the mid-range and at the rim, showing elite footwork and patience, with a lethal floater that she can get off at any time.

Despite all of that, Clark’s best skill may be her passing. It’s almost as if she has eyes in the back of her head, as she always sees everything on the floor. She constantly beats double teams with her passing, and is great at generating easy buckets by pushing the ball up the court in transition with pinpoint outlet passes. Her creativity as a passer allows her to find even the smallest windows. 

Her favorite target when she gives the ball up is starting big Monica Czinano. Czinano is a great finisher around the rim, shooting a blistering 67.5% from the floor, good for third in the nation. She does a lot of her work early, always getting good position no matter the defensive coverage, and making herself available to receive the ball.

The Hawkeyes surround Clark and Czinano with shooters all over the floor. Gabbie Marshall, Mckenna Warnock, and Kate Martin all shoot over 38% from deep. In particular, Marshall has been on a tear of late, shooting 20-for-39 from the outside during postseason play. 

It will be fascinating to see how CU head coach JR Payne and associate head coach Toriano Towns, who Payne has credited with handling the defense, approach this gameplan. Will they double Clark hard and force her to give the ball up? Do they get into a zone to try to limit dribble penetration? There are a lot of different avenues that the Buffs could go defensively in this one.

The other burning question is who gets the Clark assignment. Jaylyn Sherrod and Kindyll Wetta are ferocious defenders, but both are on the smaller side to guard the 6’0” Clark. Look for Tayanna Jones, with her athletic 6’3” frame, to potentially get some minutes on the Iowa star if she gets going.

When Colorado has the ball

No matter how well the Buffs defend in this one, they are likely going to have to score at least 70 or 75 points to pull off the stunner. The game will likely be played at or close to Iowa’s pace, and CU will have to match them bucket for bucket.

Luckily for them, there are a few things they can do to keep up.

The first major key for CU offensively is to be deliberate. Don’t be “slow”, necessarily, but playing deliberate and being stubborn, working the shot clock, and staying patient while working for good looks will not only help them consistently get better shots, but will also slow the tempo of the game down and limit Iowa’s possessions.

One place that Georgia really hurt Iowa in their second round matchup was in the mid-range. They found a ton of opportunities in the intermediate area, and they took advantage, proving to be one of the main reasons that they were able to hang around. 

This could be a big spot for Buffs leading scorer Quay Miller, who got back on track with a 17 point, 14 rebound double-double against Duke after going through a slump to start the month of March off. 

Miller has great touch from the mid-range, and she should have plenty of opportunities to get shots off. Due to the Hawkeyes’ tendency to play four guards, Miller should have a smaller defender on her for a lot of the evening. With Czinano presumably matching up with Aaronette Vonleh inside, Miller will be able to shoot over these guards, or attack them down in the post.

Despite this hole in the Iowa defense in the mid-range, the Buffs will still need to get the ball inside because that’s what they do best. Vonleh came up with a few huge baskets down on the block towards the end of their win over Duke, and is constantly someone that CU can rely on for easy offense.

The Buffs will be heavily reliant on Jaylyn Sherrod dribble-drives yet again, and will need her penetration in order to create enough easy looks to keep up. She will likely be guarded by Marshall, a 3-and-D specialist who serves as the Hawkeyes’ best perimeter defender, in what will be a key matchup for CU on this end of the floor.

Getting the ball inside also opens up the potential of getting Czinano in foul trouble, which would seriously tilt the game in the Buffs’ favor. With Iowa’s limited frontcourt depth, Czinano being forced to the bench hampers them on both ends. 

The x-factor for the Buffs offensively, as it has been so many times this season, may just be Frida Formann. The Danish guard is the only true sharpshooter in Colorado’s rotation, and the Buffs will need her to space the floor to open up driving lanes.

Formann is a lethal off-ball guard who can knock down shots on the move, and has hit six threes in the two tournament games so far. However, the Buffs may need her to take on more of a creator’s role in this one.

This year, Formann has made strides in her ability to create with the ball in her hands off the dribble. Her playmaking has improved, and she has added an arsenal of stepbacks and a great mid-range game that have made her a lethal scorer. 

Against Georgia, Iowa went under a ton of ball screens, with their clear priorities being taking away the inside game and making the Bulldogs beat them from the perimeter. I would expect a lot of the same coverages against Sherrod and the Buffs’ other guards, who are great drivers but not limited from the outside.

It’s worth putting Formann in some of those situations early to see how the Hawkeyes want to defend it. If they go under against Formann, she can step into an open three, something that Iowa certainly doesn’t want to see too much of. If they change it up and go a different route, then Colorado can rely on Formann’s growth as a ball handler to still get them in good situations.

Three keys to the game for Colorado

Ball pressure

This is something that the Buffs love to do, with Sherrod and Wetta constantly picking up guards in the backcourt all season long. It will be especially crucial against Iowa with the way that Clark attacks space. Not allowing her to get into any early pull-ups or have clean passing lanes is crucial to throwing this elite offense off. 

Mix it up

Usually when defenses pose a question, Caitlin Clark has the answer, or is ankle to find one quickly. Colorado must be able and willing to mix up the looks they’re giving her, never allowing her to know what’s coming. Even making her second guess herself for a second gives the defense a huge advantage, as it won’t be as easy for her to catch them out of position. 

I expect the Buffs to do a lot of blitzing and a lot of switching, going in line with their aggressive nature and taking away Clark’s shooting. However, throwing in some different coverages here and there is key to keeping her on her toes.

Control the tempo

Iowa isn’t going to all of a sudden become a Tony Bennett-led Virginia team, but slowing the pace down is crucial to beating the Hawkeyes. The more possessions they get, the more opportunities Clark and the rest of the Hawkeyes have to put up points.

Good thing for the Buffs, they don’t love to push the pace a ton. Sherrod will get out in transition a few times, but overall, CU doesn’t mind a slow, grinding style, similar to the game they played against Duke. Being deliberate in the half court on offense will help Colorado get into a tight game late, where Sherrod can work her crunch-time magic yet again.

Overall Outlook

The contrast of styles in this one should make it a fascinating watch. The Buffs’ gritty, tough defense against Iowa’s free-flowing, poetic offense is a matchup worthy of the Sweet 16 stage. Slowing them down is no easy task, but this Buffs team has defied the odds all year, and will need to yet again here.

The Buffs and the Hawkeyes will face off at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle on Friday at 5:30 p.m. The game will be televised on ESPN.